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Africa Forecasting
The Africa Division is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Africa consultations include:
- A detailed assessment on cocoa production in Cote d’Ivoire for insurance syndicates, before post-election violence broke out in 2010.
- An assessment on the threat of piracy to ports in the Gulf of Guinea for a power systems company.
- Assessments and violent risk ratings of airports in Cote d’Ivoire and Liberia for a major aviation insurance syndicate.
- An in-depth investigation into piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden for numerous insurance syndicates.
TRACK RECORD
SOUTH AFRICA
Our Forecast: 3 May 2011 - Likely changes to BEE laws will raise operational costs for the private sector and increase procurement from black-owned firms.
Outcome: On 24 November 2011, the South African Cabinet approved changes to the black economic empowerment bill to include fines for companies using improper candidates and other penalties.
Our Forecast: 18 March 2011 - The government is likely to raise mining taxes and royalties, but this would further reduce nationalisation risks.
Outcome: On 24 November 2011, the ANC said that it had been considering plans to tax the export of raw materials in order to induce local beneficiation.
MOZAMBIQUE
Our Forecast: 8 February 2011 – Contract/Taxation Risk - The government is increasingly likely to renegotiate megaprojects in the mining and energy sectors over the next year.
Outcome: On 12 May 2011, the government submitted a bill to Parliament to allow renegotiation of contracts for mega-projects to mitigate economic risks.
COTE D’IVOIRE
Out Forecast: 15 April 2011 - Investors in Cote d'Ivoire's Eurobond are unlikely to receive payments if the current lull in fighting and the associated uncertainty persists through June 2011, and the political impasse between President Ouattara and key military commanders is not resolved by that time. However, if President Ouattara is able to forge a stable government, and fighting stops in Abidjan and key cocoa producing regions allowing cocoa exports to resume, his administration is likely to make good the payment it missed in January, as well as the upcoming payment in June.
Outcome: On 12 July 2011, Finance Minister Charles Koffi Diby indicated that the government will be unable to make coupon payments on its $2.3bn Eurobond until 2012, after missing the January and June 2011 $29m payments.
Click here for SAMPLE AFRICA ANALYSIS
