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Africa Forecasting
The Africa Division, led by Thoko Kaime and OB Sisay, is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Africa consultations include:
- Due Diligence for a leading energy contractor on an Angolan firm with whom the client were considering a joint venture.
- Forecast for an insurance company on risks (expropriation, political violence, currency inconvertibility and capital controls) to a zinc mine in Burkina Faso.
- Assessment for an airline company on terrorism risks to aviation assets in N'Djamena, Chad.
- Analysis of the counter-party risks and opportunities associated with an African governmental ministry (an assessment of trade finance, currency and contract risks).
- Forecast of piracy risks to individual vessels moving through the Gulf of Aden and Somali and Kenyan territorial waters.
- Sector assessment for a telecoms and media company in Congo with an emphasis on the outlook for confiscation and war/terrorism.
TRACK RECORD
The Africa Division’s successful forecasting record has meant that we have been able to give our clients decision-ready intelligence on a number of questions to help them to improve their bottom line.
Gulf of Aden
Our Forecast: 08 April 2008 ‘A shift in piracy from eastern Somalia to the Gulf of Aden increases risks for commercial vessels in shipping lanes over the next 3 months’.
Result: There were several successful hijackings in the Gulf of Aden, including on 20 April, 21 April, 17 May, 25 May, 28 May and 23 June, as well as attempted hijackings in which pirates fired on vessels.
Madagascar
Our Forecast: 27 January 2009 'demonstrations led by Antananarivo mayor, Andry Rajoelina, are likely to see Ravalomanana ousted'.
Result: Rajoelina took power on 17 March 2009, despite previously claiming that he was not seeking presidential office.
Sudan
Our Forecast: 03 December 2007 ‘Changing alliances and increased military activity around Southern Kordofan will increase the risk of attacks on energy and NGO assets’.
Result: On 5 June 2008, five Indian oil workers were kidnapped between Neem and Heglig, Southern Kordofan. On 19 October 2008, nine Chinese oil workers were kidnapped near Abyei, Southern Kordofan. On 29 October 2008, near Heglig, three Sudanese HTC oil workers were reportedly killed in an ambush.
Cameroon
Our Forecast: 14 January 2008 ‘Cameroonian troops in the Bakassi peninsula are at risk of attack towards June 2008; risks to the Chad-Cameroon pipeline are limited’.
Result: On 10 June 2008, a Cameroonian government official was abducted and several policemen killed in an attack on a village in the border region of Bakassi.
Southern Africa
Our Forecast: 7 May 2007 'Electricity blackouts are likely to increase in frequency in Southern Africa at least until 2011.'
Result: In the first two weeks of January 2008, South Africa experienced power cuts and several mining companies suspended production because of shortages. South Africa also cut supplies to neighbouring countries such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia.
Ethiopia
Our Forecast: January 2007 ‘Ethiopian intervention in Somalia is likely to increase the risk of internal attacks by separatist opposition in Ogaden, Addis Ababa and the North.......covert attacks, especially on energy infrastructure and oil- exploration sites, will become more likely.’
Result: On 24 April 2007, in Abole, ONLF rebels attacked a Zhongyuan Petroleum Exploration Bureau oil facility; some 74 people were killed and 7 abducted.
Sierra Leone
Our Forecast: 2 October 2007 ' Mining concessions are at increased risk of renegotiation and cancellation in the next year.'
Result: On 30 October 2007, the minister of mines announced that all mining contracts would be reviewed by the government.
Click here for SAMPLE AFRICA ANALYSIS
