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Asia Forecasting
The Asia Division is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries from South Asia to East Asia as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Asia consultations include:
- Modelling of political instability scenarios in South Asia for a global mining firm.
- Assessment of various post-ISAF scenarios in Afghanistan for a European development agency.
- An in-depth assessment and risk rating of all commercial airports in Afghanistan for an aviation insurance syndicate.
- Due diligence of a defence contractor in India, for a US-based multinational company.
- Probable Maximum Loss (PML) modelling of all commercial exposures in Thailand for a London-based insurance syndicate, ahead of national elections in Thailand in July 2011.
TRACK RECORD
INDONESIA
Our Forecast: 3 October 2011: As vigilante groups become more involved in terrorism in Indonesia, areas at high risk of attack will include urban Java (Jakarta, West Java satellite cities and Banten), Makassar and Maluku.
Outcome: On 18 August 2011, the regional Parliament in Morotai, Maluku was bombed.
CHINA
Our Forecast: 15 July 2011: In the one-year outlook, a natural resources tax on oil, gas and coal is likely to be enforced nationwide.
Outcome: On 11 October 2011, the government announced that the tax would apply nationwide starting on 1 November 2011.
INDIA
Our Forecast: 4 April 2011 - Contract Risk - Thermal power, large real-estate projects and mining projects face significant risks of tighter enforcement of environmental norms.
Outcome: State-owned Coal India (CIL) has had a number of its projects stuck as of July 2011 due to delays in obtaining environmental clearances. It has lost about 200 million tonnes of potential production as well.
CHINA
Our Forecast: The government's sensitivity to inflation, especially food price inflation, raises risks of new regulations and fines on retailers.
Outcome: On 13 October 2011, Walmart saw 13 stores closed in Chongqing and had to pay $420,000 in fines for mislabelling ordinary pork as organic. The fines were higher than usual and focused on financial damage over consumer harm for the first time.
PHILIPPINES
Our Forecast: Rising tactical cooperation between the NPA and MILF is likely to lead to more frequent, larger-scale arson and bomb attacks by the NPA targeting mines, construction sites and equipment, transmission tower and trasnport assets in Mindanao.
Outcome: On 3 October 2011, 200-300 NPA rebels staged a complex, large-scale attack on three nickel mines and their attached port facilities in Mindanao. Arson and bomb damage to tugs, one cargo ship, offices and mine equipment was at least $11 million. The attack was a clear increase in capability.
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