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Asia Forecasting
The Asia Division, led by Rachel Shoemaker and Arvind Ramakrishnan, is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries from South Asia to East Asia as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Asia consultations include:
- Disaster scenarios and probable maximum loss modelling for South Korean and Chinese shipyards for a shipping client.
- An assessment of the outlook for the palm oil industry in Malaysia and Indonesia.
- An in-depth report on risks by state, city, neighbourhood, route, sector and asset in Afghanistan.
- Reports for insurance clients on the risks of terrorist attacks and event cancellation to cricket tournaments in India.
- Analysis of non-payment and non-delivery risks for trade finance deals in Southeast Asia, including in the energy and timber sectors.
- A country entry report on Mongolia with a focus on influence groups and opportunities by sector for a hedge fund client.
TRACK RECORD
The Asia Division’s successful forecasting record has meant that we have been able to give our clients decision-ready intelligence on a number of questions to help them to improve their bottom line.
Sri Lanka
Our Forecast: 25 January 2007 ‘Increased Air Force attacks on LTTE targets in north and east Sri Lanka raise the likelihood of LTTE attacks on air bases and airports.’
Result: On 27 February 2007, in Batticaloa, an LTTE mortar attack on a helicopter landing at an Air Force base wounded the Italian and US envoys to Sri Lanka. On 25 March 2007, the Sri Lankan Air Force's Katunayake Air Base was bombed by LTTE light aircraft, killing three soldiers and injuring 16 others. Bandaranaike Airport was closed and Sri Lankan Airlines flights were rescheduled.
China and Taiwan
Our Forecast: 31 March 2008 ‘Direct flights, cross-border equity investment and tourism between China and Taiwan are likely to grow in the two-year outlook.’
Result: Between June and December 2008, several airlines, including Air China and Taiwan’s China Airlines, began direct flights. On 21 May 2008, the Legislative Yuan approved a bill that allows tourists from mainland China to exchange up to RMB 20,000 ($2,870) in Taiwan.
Pakistan
Our Forecast: 31 March 2008 ‘Power cuts are likely to disrupt industry and raise risks of violent protests against electricity firms in 2008.’
Result: On 14 Apr 2008, in Multan, residents damaged a power station and set fire to a bank in protest against frequent power cuts, injuring 13 people.
Malaysia
Our Forecast: 13 March 2008 ‘Public infrastructure contracts in opposition-governed states, including Penang and Kedah, are likely to be reviewed and delayed.’
Result: On 22 April 2008, Malaysia placed infrastructure projects that had been allocated under its 2006 to 2010, $65bn five-year plan under review.
Bangladesh
Our Forecast: 1 August 2006 ‘Foreign-funded energy and mining projects face increased risks from politically motivated protests.’
Result: On 29 August 2006, in Phulbari, Dinajpur, thousands of rioters set fire to the residences of Asia Energy Plc employees. On 30 August 2006, up to 20,000 people broke into the Asia Energy Plc office to protest against an open-pit mining project at Phulbari.
China
Our Forecast: 22 August 2006 ‘New environmental laws are likely to disrupt operations, especially in the energy, chemicals and mining sectors.’
Result: China reportedly closed 553 thermal power generators in 2007 as part of its efforts to reduce the pollution level. On 30 July 2007, China's environmental agency put 30 companies on its first pollution blacklist and banned them from obtaining bank loans. On 27 December 2007, authorities shut down 23 factories, including paper mills, printing and electroplating plants, in Sichuan province for pollution.
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