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Middle East and North Africa Forecasting
The Middle East and North Africa Division is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries in the Middle East and North Africa as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Middle East and North Africa consultations include:
- A detailed intelligence report for a major insurance syndicate about risks of civil unrest to a major bank's assets in Kuwait.
- Consultations for insurance syndicates and energy companies on political instability in Egypt in the run-up to and following Mubarak's resignation.
- A report for a major construction conglomerate on security risks and political factors influencing business in the UAE.
- Security reviews of major airports in Libya for a major aviation company leasing aircraft
- A strategic consultancy for a government on food security in the Middle East.
TRACK RECORD
The Middle East and North Africa Division’s successful forecasting record has meant that we have been able to give our clients decision-ready intelligence on a number of questions to help them to improve their bottom line and prepare for crises.
YEMEN
Our Forecast: 27 January 2011: Political Stability - Failure to make concessions to the opposition will likely increase the
risks of a military coup against President Saleh.
Outcome: On 21 March 2011, General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, an influential backer of President Ali Abdullah Sale, defected to the opposition.
EGYPT
Our Forecast: 31 January 2011: Mubarak will be gone in 30 days, if not sooner. If he does not leave within roughly a week
we forecast that protests will increase.
Outcome: On 12 February 2011, Hosni Mubarak resigned as the president of Egypt.
SYRIA
Our Forecast: Our Forecast: 19 July 2011: Turkish security fears over the re-emergence of a Kurdish separatist
safe haven in Syria are driving Turkish engagement with the opposition. A further influx of refugees from Syria could well prompt
Turkish imposition of a buffer zone inside Syria in the next six months.
Outcome: On 1 November, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey was considering the implementation of a buffer zone inside Syria.
Our Forecast: 27 January 2011: Political Stability - Failure to make concessions to the opposition will likely increase the risks of a military coup against President Saleh.
Outcome: On 21 March 2011, General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, an influential backer of President Ali Abdullah Sale, defected to the opposition.
EGYPT
Our Forecast: 31 January 2011: Mubarak will be gone in 30 days, if not sooner. If he does not leave within roughly a week we forecast that protests will increase.
Outcome: On 12 February 2011, Hosni Mubarak resigned as the president of Egypt.
SYRIA
Our Forecast: Our Forecast: 19 July 2011: Turkish security fears over the re-emergence of a Kurdish separatist
safe haven in Syria are driving Turkish engagement with the opposition. A further influx of refugees from Syria could well prompt
Turkish imposition of a buffer zone inside Syria in the next six months.
Outcome: On 1 November, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey was considering the implementation of a buffer zone inside Syria.
Click here for SAMPLE MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ANALYSIS
