You are here : Home / Global Forecasting / North America
North America Forecasting
The North America Division is responsible for the company’s analytical view on the US, Canada and the English-speaking Caribbean as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent North America consultations include:
- Scenario modelling for various maritime conflicts in the Western hemisphere for a government.
- An in-depth of US macro-economic and trade policy, for credit risk underwriters.
- Quarterly updates on risks of global jihadist violence in North America, for violent risk underwriters and corporate security managers.
- An assessment on the implications of the H1N1 outbreak in 2009 on disruption to mass transport and aviation networks in the US, for an insurance syndicate.
TRACK RECORD
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Our Forecast: 29 July 2011 - The US is unlikely to default on its debt, but Congress is increasingly likely to pass a short-term solution by mid-August 2011.
Outcome: The US raised the debt ceiling on 31 July 2011, thus avoiding default, but under the condition that a joint committee be formed to address further deficit reduction by 24 November 2011.
Our Forecast: 8 June 2011 - AQ is very likely to implement a major internal security review, halting any plans for spectacular attacks in the West over the next year or so. The most likely revenge attacks will come instead from low capability self-starters.
Outcome: On 19 November, US citizen and Muslim convert Jose Pimentel was arrested; he had planned to use three pipe bombs to attack police and returning US troops.
Our Forecast: 24 March 11 – Contract Risk: Large scale defaults by US municipal borrowers are unlikely, as public spending cuts and labour rights renegotiation look to increase.
Outcome: Despite predictions of mass municipal defaults by prominent investor Meredith Whitney in December 2010, and media speculation to that end, by July 2011 defaults in the US had actually fallen 60% year-on-year. Municipalities, as well as state governments, engaged in deficit reduction through spending cuts and renegotiation of public sector labour contracts throughout the summer of 2011. In 2011, the majority of municipalities froze employee pay, 31% laid off workers, 30% reduced health-care benefits, and 60% postponed or terminated infrastructure projects.
Click here for SAMPLE NORTH AMERICA ANALYSIS
