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Western Europe Forecasting
The Western Europe Division, led by Pepe Egger, is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries in Western Europe as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Western Europe consultations include:
- A forecast for an insurance client on the likelihood of strikes at refineries in the UK.
- A report on the risks of a terrorist attack at Swiss airports.
- A due diligence report for a major bank about a British counter-party.
- Realistic disaster scenario modelling of terrorist attacks in London.
- A series of reports on the risks of the cancellation of sporting events in Western Europe due to domestic terrorism threats.
- A report for a client on the regulatory outlook for tax havens in Western Europe.
TRACK RECORD
The Western Europe Division’s successful forecasting record has meant that we have been able to give our clients decision-ready intelligence on a number of questions to help them to improve their bottom line.
Iceland
Our Forecast: 24 August 2007 ‘Major macroeconomic problems are likely as a result of the chronic overheating of the economy.’
Result: On 7 October 2008, the government announced emergency laws to increase its control over banks, and the PM said national bankruptcy was a risk.
UK
Our Forecast: 24 September 2004 ‘An attack on the UK is likely over the next year by Sunni extremists. This is likely to be relatively low impact - say 30 to 50 deaths, rather than on the scale of the World Trade Center - because the emerging network is inexperienced.’
Result: On 7 July 2005, bombs on the tube and bus network in London killed 52 people.
Spain
Our Forecast: 1 January 2008 ‘Bomb attacks by ETA on state assets are probable in the run up to elections on 9 March 2008; fresh peace negotiations are unlikely in 2008.
Result: On 8 February 2008, in Bergara, Guipúzcoa, ETA triggered a 15kg bomb outside a courthouse, causing substantial damage to the building and nearby cars.
Denmark
Our Forecast: 31 December 2007 Disagreement over wage negotiations for public sector employees is likely to lead to strikes in early 2008.
Result: In April and May 2008, healthcare workers, day care workers and bus drivers went on strike for several weeks to demand pay rises.
Greece
Our Forecast: 28 January 2008 ‘Strikes at Piraeus and Thessaloniki ports will likely increase, causing serious cargo disruption and temporary closure of the two ports.’
Result: On 29 August 2008, the Thessaloniki Port Authority reported that there had been a 34% drop in profits in Q1 and Q2 2008 due to strike action.
Italy
Our Forecast: 22 January 2008 ‘Despite Prodi resuming his position as prime minister, the coalition government is unlikely to survive past mid-2008.’
Result: Prodi's government collapsed on 24 January 2008, and new elections in April 2008 saw Berlusconi win a comfortable majority.
Click here for SAMPLE WESTERN EUROPE ANALYSIS
