Conference Speaking Engagements for 2011

Oslo Maritime Security Seminar

5 December, Oslo

Head of Africa Forecasting Natznet Tesfay briefed on West Africa piracy and maritime security developments.

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Platts 3rd Annual Managing Oil and Energy Risk Conference

29-30 Nov, Geneva

Head of Global Energy Consulting Teymur Huseynov was invited to speak about global arbitrage and the oil market.

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Oil & Gas Pipes

27-29 Nov 2011, London

Director of Violent Risk Paul McGrath briefed about key violent risks to pipelines in Latin America, Asia and Africa in 2012.

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3rd Annual West Africa Trade & Commodity Finance Conference

1-2 Nov 2011, London

Head of Africa Forecasting, Natznet Tesfay, moderated a panel on the investment risks to Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire's cocoa trade.

Head of Global Energy Consulting, Teymur Huseynov spoke about investing in oil on the Africa-China resource panel.

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Hedge Fund World Zurich

15-16 Nov 2011, Zurich

Global Economist Brian Lawson moderated a panel discussing the outlook for commodities on 15 November 2011.

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OSAC Pan-Asia Regional Council Meeting: Security & Safety in the Pan-Asia Region

Seattle, 19 October 2011

Director of Marketing Kevin Liu spoke about EA’s Geopolitical and economic forecast for Japan in the year ahead.

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Royal African Society: Combating Piracy in the Horn of Africa

13 October 2011

Head of Africa Forecasting, Natznet Tesfay, spoke about how onshore risks in Somalia influence offshore piracy dynamics.

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EA Webinar: The Outlook for Indonesia’s ICT Sector

11 October 2011

Head of Asia Forecasting Rachel Shoemaker briefed on the risk outlook for foreign investors in Indonesia's ICT sector. Key points included the risk outlook for strikes and increased labour costs, government initiatives regionally and nationally as well as the regulatory and taxation risk outlook.

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Securities Industry Management Association (SIMA): Annual Forum

London, 7 October 2011

Chief Global Economist Brian Lawson spoke about how political risk drives economic highlighted key risks in 2012.

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Federation of European Risk Management Associations (FERMA) Forum

Stockhold, 2-5 October 2011

Senior Violent Risk Forecaster John Cochrane spoke on the Advanced Risk Management Panel for Marine and Cargo Risks, highlighting future piracy hotspots in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden as well as risks to key cargo risk routes.

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International Underwriters Association (IUA): Threat to the London 2012 Olympics

London, 4 October 2011

Head of Global Jihad Analysis, Anna Boyd, forecasted key terrorism and civil unrest risks for the London 2012 Olympic Games.

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OSAC/HSWG: 3rd Annual Hotel Security Seminar

Istanbul, 28 September 2011

CEO Simon Sole spoke about forecasting the world’s next major events in the upcoming 10 years.

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Euromoney Seminars: Russia & CIS Corporate Bond Conference

Moscow, 27-28 September 2011

Head of Eurasia Forecasting Alisa Lockwood briefed on Kazakhstan’s energy market as a potential source of deal flow.

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Willis SCR: Security Management and Risk Mitigation in Volatile Overseas Markets

Beijing, 22 September 2011

CEO Simon Sole presented on the violent risk outlook for Chinese companies entering Libya as well as the violent risk outlook for Sudan, South Sudan and Colombia.

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Marine Insurance Seminar

Houston, Texas, 18-20 September 2011

CEO Simon Sole forecasted key risks in Libya, the future of al-Qaeda following the death of bin Laden and key trends and the outlook for 2012.

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EA Breakfast Briefing: Iraq’s Oil & Gas Sector - Risks to Contracts in the Year Ahead

London, 1 September 2011 and Houston, Texas, 20 September

Head of Middle East and North Africa Forecasting, Zaineb Al-Assam, and Head of Global Energy Consulting, Teymur Huseynov, briefed about the outlook for Iraq’s oil and gas sector. Topics included contract risk forecasts for existing and future projects and influence group analysis.

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Asia House

London, 19 July 2011

Rachel Shoemaker, Head of Asia Forecasting, briefed on the investment environment in post-election Thailand. She was on the panel with the FT's David Pilling and Greg Watkins from the British Chamber of Commerce Thailand.

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Frontline Club

London, 13 July 2011

Natznet Tesfay, Head of Africa Forecasting, forecasted the future for North and South Sudan at the event 'Focus on Sudan: What does independence mean for the North and South?'

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Lloyd's Singapore Breakfast Briefing

Singapore, 7 July 2011

Simon Sole, CEO, addressed a breakfast briefing at Lloyds Singapore, joined by Rachel Shoemaker, Head of Asia Forecasting, Natznet Tesfay, Head of Africa Forecasting, and Zaineb Al-Assam, Head of MENA Forecasting. The analysts delivered a short briefing on topics including the outlook for unrest in Thailand, five-year scenarios and forecasts for the MENA region, and game-changer scenarios for a range of Africa countries.

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Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce

Hong Kong, 5 July 2011

Hosted by the Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce, Rachel Shoemaker, Head of Asia Forecasting, Natznet Tesfay, Head of Africa Forecasting, and Zaineb Al-Assam, Head of MENA Forecasting, will brief members of the Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce on game-changer scenarios in their region and key political and violent risk forecasts. Simon Sole, CEO, will deliver a keynote address.

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Kunming, China

1-3 July 2011

Exclusive Analysis continued its tour of Asia in Kunming, China. The heads of Africa, Asia and MENA regions briefed multiple companies in Kunming about key commercial risks in the 1-3 year outlook.

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China Exim Bank: Understanding Country and Project Risk

Beijing, 28 June 2011

Exclusive Analysis delivered a multi-region briefing, including CEO Simon Sole, who spoke about EA’s methodology for forecasting commercially relevant events worldwide. Key risks and opportunities for Chinese firms were highlighted by Head of Africa Forecasting Natznet Tesfay, Head of Asia Forecasting Rachel Shoemaker, and Head of Middle East and North Africa Forecasting Zaineb Al-Assam.

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KC Standard: Public Private Partnerships – Managing Large Project Risks

Beijing, 27 June 2011

CEO Simon Sole, Head of Africa Forecasting Natznet Tesfay, Head of Asia Forecasting Rachel Shoemaker and Head of Middle East and North Africa Forecasting Zaineb Al-Assam briefed on the risk outlook for their regions in the 1 to 3 year outlook.

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Euromoney's Annual Global Commodities Finance Conference

Geneva, 16-17 June 2011

Teymur Huseynov, Head of Global Energy Consulting, spoke about forecasting risk to the energy sector.

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Managing CAT Risk

London, 22 June 2011

David Hunt, Director of Research, briefed on 'Aggregation vs Modelling' - Lessons to be Learned from Each Other'.

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Reuters Reporting on International Security and Terrorism Conference

London, 6-8 June 2011

Anna Murison, Head of Global Jihad Analysis, spoke about the future of al-Qaeda on the panel ‘Terrorism after bin Laden’ on 6 June 2011. Zaineb Al-Assam, Head of Middle East and North Africa Forecasting, spoke about key civil unrest indicator events in the MENA region on the panel ‘Future Challenges – Civil Resistance – A Tool to Transform the Middle East’ on 8 June 2011.

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The Standard Club

London, 8 June 2011

Marine expert Gary Li and Head of Africa Forecasting Natznet Tesfay briefed about onshore and offshore risks in Somalia and Nigeria.

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Bloomberg Conferences: Emerging Markets - China

London, 25 May 2011

Rachel Shoemaker, Head of Asia Forecasting, discussed wages, the wealth gap and global manufacturing in China on a panel of experts.

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EA Breakfast Briefing: Colombia Terrorism

London, 24 May 2011

Carlos Caicedo, Head of Latin America Forecasting, briefed on renewed risks from the FARC and location-specific implications in Colombia.

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EA Breakfast Briefing: Taxation Risks to the Upstream Energy Sector in Russia, Ghana, Uzbekistan and Colombia

London, 18 May 2011

Teymur Huseynov, Head of Energy Consulting; Carlos Caicedo, Head of Latin America Forecasting; Natznet Tesfay, Head of Africa Forecasting; and Ishan Bhaskar, Economist, presented key forecasts for taxation risks to upstream oil companies operating in Russia, Ghana, Uzbekistan and Colombia.

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Asia House: Resource Nationalism

London, 10 May 2011

Rachel Shoemaker, Head of Asia Forecasting, participated in a panel on risks to natural resources in Asia.

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Counterterrorism Expo

London, 20 April 2011

Simon Sole, CEO, forecasted terrorism risks to the London 2012 Olympic Games, including network analysis of jihadist groups and left-wing activists.

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SIMA: Member Briefing

London, 19 April 2011

Anna Murison, Head of Global Jihad Analysis, presented key 2011 forecasts from Foresight 2011 to members of the Securities Industry Management Association.

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Singapore Maritime Week: Maritime & Port Security

Singapore, 13 April 2011

Managing Director Kirsten Parker briefed key forecasts and scenarios for political risks in the maritime sector including risks to shipping in the Gulf of Aden, piracy risks in the Gulf of Guinea and the Niger Delta as well as Middle East and North Africa scenarios.

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Asia House: Business Opportunities in Kazakhstan

London, 6 April 2011

Teymur Huseynov, Head of Energy Consulting, spoke about the risks and opportunities for businesses operating in Kazakhstan.

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EA Breakfast Briefing: Global or Local Jihad

London, 22 March 2011

Anna Murison, Head of Global Jihad Analysis, presented forecasts on the viability and future outlook for the global Jihad movement. The briefing coincided with the release of analysis entitled Local to Global Jihad. Rachel Shoemaker, Head of Asia Forecasting, and Natznet Tesfay, Head of Africa Forecasting, also briefed about the jihadist terrorist threats in their respective regions.

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OSAC/ISMA:

Dubai, 21 March 2011

Zaineb Al-Assam, Head of Middle East and North Africa Forecasting, briefed about the capabilities, targets, methods and regional facilitation networks of Al-Qaeda in Iraq on a panel entitled “Al-Qaeda Affiliates.”

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Bloomberg Conferences: Bloomberg Hedge Funds London

London, 17 March 2011

Simon Sole, CEO, assessed the impact of unrest in the Middle East and North Africa on investments on a panel.

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International Studies Association (ISA): Annual Convention 2011 – Global Governance: Political Authority in Transition

Montreal, Canada, 22 February 2011

Director of Violent Risk Forecasting, Nathalie Wlodarczyk, chaired a panel entitled From Local to Global Terrorism. The panel included regional heads Rachel Shoemaker (Asia) and Natznet Tesfay (Africa) along with head of Exclusive Analysis’s Global Jihad Analysis team Anna Murison and Director of Research David Hunt.

Topics included: The prospects for al-Qaeda in Indonesia benefiting from disaffected insurgents in Aceh, Jihadi terrorism in the Horn of Africa, Global Jihadist Approaches to Governance and planning for uncertainty through optimal scenario selection.

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IIR/IBC: Insuring Export Credit and Political Risk

London, 1-2 March 2011

Rafael Gomes, Director of Risk Analytics, moderated two streams at the conference. The Regional Analysis stream consisted of the following two sessions: Asia: An Insurance Insider’s Perspective and Russia CIS and Emerging Europe. The other stream, Terrorism and Political Violence, included sessions on The Global Outlook for Terrorism and Political Violence and Emerging Market Terrorism and Political Violent Risk Insurance.

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International Petroleum Week

London, 22 February 2011

Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa Forecasting, presented on the energy sector outlook in Nigeria, Uganda and Sudan.

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Allen & Overy

London, 10 February 2011

Simon Sole, CEO, introduced an event on the UK Bribery Act. Rachel Shoemaker, Head of Asia, Teymur Huseynov, Head of Eurasia, and Firas Abi Ali, Senior Forecaster with the Middle East and North Africa Desk, further delivered regional briefings on bribery risk.

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EA Breakfast Briefing: African Elections 2011

London, 9 February 2011

Natznet Tesfay, Head of Africa Forecasting, delivered an overview of elections in Iganda, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and DRC.

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EA Breakfast Briefing: Achieving a Global Understanding of Bribery – the Challenge of the UK Bribery Act

London, 1 February 2011
To view the presentation, click here

Rachel Shoemaker, Head of Asia Forecasting, Teymur Huseynov, Head of Eurasia Forecasting, and Firas Abi Ali, Senior Forecaster with the Middle East and North Africa Desk, delivered regional briefings on bribery risk.

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Egypt Outlook: Succession, Unrest and Contagion

London, 31 January 2011
To view the presentation, click here

Zaineb Al-Assam, Head of Middle East Forecasting, John Cochrane, Senior Global Forecaster, and Anna Murison, Head of Global Jihad Analysis, briefed on the outlook for Egypt and the Region.

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Russia Terrorism Outlook: Risk by Location and Asset-Type

London, 26 January 2011
To view the presentation, click here

Zaineb Al-Assam, Head of Middle East Forecasting, John Cochrane, Senior Global Forecaster, and Anna Murison, Head of Global Jihad Analysis, briefed on the outlook for Egypt and the Region.

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Tunisia Outlook: Unrest and Contagion Scenarios

London, 20 January 2011
To view the presentation, click here

Zaineb Al-Assam, Head of Middle East Forecasting, briefed on unrest and contagion scenarios for Tunisia.

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The Insurance Institute of London

London, 11 January 2011

Simon Sole, CEO, presented on the threat terrorism poses to Aviation worldwide.

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ASIS

San Francisco, 19 January 2011

Rafael Gomes, Director of Risk Analytics, presented on regional security trends in Latin America.

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IUA

London, 11 Jan 2011

A team of Exclusive Analysis regional analysts presented their key forecasts for 2011 at the International Underwriting Association’s annual event.

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