Country Risk Evaluation and Assessment Model (CREAM) is our online risk model which covers all countries across war, terrorism, political risk and civil unrest.
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Upcoming Events
27 April – 1 May 2008
Rafael Gomes, Deputy Director of Political Risk, will lead a session titled: 'ERM: The Political Dimensions', which brings together leading practitioners to offer an understanding of the qualitative dimensions of ERM from successful case studies.
For more information, please contact Alex Poole-Warren.
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ICBI: Projects International, The Westin, Paris, France
20 + 22 May 2008
Teymur Huseynov, Head of Eurasia Division, will present on 'Russia: State Capitalism and New Perestroika'.
For more information, please contact Alex Poole-Warren.
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Exporta: Trade & The Credit Crunch, Business Briefing, London
21 May 2008
James Howarth, Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Desk, will present on the 'Middle East'.
For more information, please contact Alex Poole-Warren
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Exporta: Trade & Supply Chain Solutions Europe, Westin Dragonara, Malta
17-18 June 2008
James Howarth, Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Desk, will present on 'Emerging Euro-North Africa Opportunities'.
For more information, please contact Alex Poole-Warren
Past Events
Chatham House - Security and Defence Futures: Possibilities and Practicalities, London
21 + 22 February 2008
Simon Sole, Chief Executive Officer, presented the key issues the military should watch out for when strategically planning where to allocate resources. The session will include 5-year forecasts for Russia, Iran and China
Informa: Insuring Export Credit and Political Risk, London
28 February 2008
Exclusive Analysis ran a workshop examining the governments and policies most likely to change and the probable impact on firms' abilities to meet their contractual commitments in key export sectors.
Emerging Markets Trade and Political Risk Forum, London
22 + 23 January 2008
Teymur Huseynov, Head of Eurasia Division, presented on "CIS and Central Asia: Looking out for Black Swans".
IQPC, 3rd Global Summit: Security for Critical Energy Infrastructure, London
31 January + 1 February 2008
Dr Thoko Kaime, Head of Africa Division, presented on "Mitigating Operational Risks: Utilising Political Risk Forecasting While Setting Up New Projects".
Exporta: Sub-Saharan Africa Project and Trade Finance Forum
London, 10 + 11 December 2007
Dr Thoko Kaime, Head of Africa Division, presented on "Zimbabwe: Understanding the Political Risk Environment".
Trade Finance Middle East Conference
Dubai, 4 + 5 December 2007
Dr James Howarth, Deputy Head of Middle East Division, moderated a panel on "Trading Risk and Reward: GCC country updates - market intelligence from the front line."
Lloyds 360 Live Debate - Global Business: Under Attack?
New York, 2 November 2007
Simon Sole chaired the panel discussion at this debate, on the subject: "What should businesses do to prepare for future terrorist threats and what role can risk management play?"
Hedge Funds World 2007
Miami, 22 October 2007
Carlos Caicedo spoke on political risks in Latin America, including where expropriation risks will increase in the next 12 months, the likelihood of macroeconomic imbalances intensifying in Argentina and Venezuela and the prospects for investors in Calderon's Mexico.
Managing and Insuring Political Risk and Terrorism - IIR/ IBC Conferences
18 September 2007, London
Exclusive Analysis led a pre-conference workshop focusing on key emerging markets for European businesses (Iran, the Middle East, North Africa, Russia, Turkey, the Baltics and the CIS). The workshop included a session on Terrorism Risk Modelling.
19 September 2007, London
Simon Sole spoke on managing political risk and terrorism in the Brazil, Russia, India and China economies.
www.iir-conferences.com/political risk
The Evolution of al-Qaeda: Implications for Underwriters - International Underwriters Association
20 August 2007, London
Simon Sole examined how understanding the intent and capability of terrorist groups will help underwriters to know which assets are most at risk and to assess the likely size and cost of future attacks.
Simon Sole, CEO of Exclusive Analysis, participated in the Lloyd's 360 Live Debate
15 May 2007
Over 200 delegates attended the Lloyd's 360 Live Debate entitled 'Global Business: Under Attack?' on 15 May 2007. The debate explored the key issues surrounding terrorism and political risk and its impact on global business.
Click here to find out more about the event and view speaker highlights.
Exclusive Analysis regularly provides the media with expert commentary on recent developments to political and violent risk environments around the world.
CNN, BBC World, CNBC, Bloomberg and Sky News all carry interviews with regional experts working for Exclusive Analysis. Analysts are also featured on BBC radio programmes and independent stations.
Exclusive Analysis hosts roundtable discussions to which journalists are invited. Our articles are published in a range of publications and we are regularly quoted in the press.
For further information please contact Alex Poole-Warren on +44 (0)20 7868 2817 or e-mail: alex.pw@exclusive-analysis.com
EA in the Press
Television
| Date | Station | Comment |
Monday, February 18, 2008 |
CNBC | Joanna Gorska discussed Kosovo’s declaration of independence issued on 17 February 2008 commenting that the declaration of independence would not change the geopolitical situation in the Balkans – it was likely that major Western states would recognise an independent Kosovo while Russia would veto any such recognition attempts at the UN forum. |
Friday, February 15, 2008 |
CNBC Europe | Teymur Huseynov commented on the commercial implications of elections in Russia and Ukraine. |
Friday, February 8, 2008 |
CNBC | OB Sisay analysed the investment opportunities in South Africa for 2008. |
Tuesday, January 29, 2008 |
CNBC Africa | Thoko Kaime analysed the commercial implications of Southern Africa power shortages. |
Monday, January 28, 2008 |
CNBC Europe | John Raines commented on the State of Union Address. |
Monday, January 7, 2008 |
Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo analysed the 2008 outlook for Brazil and Venezuela. |
Friday, January 4, 2008 |
CNBC Europe | John Raines discussed the first Democratic and Republican presidential caucus. |
Friday, January 4, 2008 |
Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo concluded that it was highly unlikely that Brazil would the radical nationalist polices implemented elsewhere in the region, namely Venezuela and Bolivia. |
Saturday, December 29, 2007 |
CNN International | Amarjit Singh analysed the implications for the political and security situation in Pakistan if elections are postponed. |
Friday, December 28, 2007 |
CNN Europe | Amarjit Singh commented on the implication of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination for US relations with Pakistan. |
Thursday, December 27, 2007 |
BBC World Business Review | Amarjit Singh analysed the economic implications of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in Pakistan. |
Thursday, December 27, 2007 |
CNBC | Amarjit Singh commented on the political situation in Pakistan after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination and its implications for investments into Pakistan. |
Thursday, December 13, 2007 |
CNBC | John Raines analysed the Republican Political Debate |
Monday, December 10, 2007 |
CNBC | Joanna Gorska discussed the Kosovo question in light of the 10 December deadline for the troika (EU, US and Russia) to report back on Kosovo negotiations to the UN Secretary General. |
Monday, December 3, 2007 |
CNBC | Teymur Huseynov commented on the Russian elections |
Monday, December 3, 2007 |
CNN | Carlos Caicedo analysed the impact of the referendum results in Venezuela. |
Monday, November 26, 2007 |
BBC World | Amarjit Singh analysed the measures being taken by the Chinese government to address the problem of overvaluation of stocks on the Chinese market |
Monday, November 26, 2007 |
CNBC | Amarjit Singh discussed the options available to Musharraf and whether the emergency would end peacefully. |
| Monday, November 26, 2007 | Bloomberg | Amarjit Singh analysed why Musharraf staged the state of emergency in Pakistan and the likelihood of Nawaz Sharif playing a role. |
Thursday, November 15, 2007 |
CCTV (China) | Kevin Liu was interviewed about terrorism risks in China. |
| Thursday, November 15, 2007 | CNN | Simon Sole analysed Gordon Brown's terrorism initiatives. |
Tuesday, November 13, 2007 |
CNN | Amarjit Singh commented on the Pakistan Military and its operations in the Swat Valley (North West Frontier Province). |
Monday, November 12, 2007 |
CNBC, The Other Dimension | OB Sisay participated in a panel analysing the kidnappings in Chad. |
Thursday, November 1, 2007 |
Bloomberg | James Howarth analysed the U.S-Iran relationship. |
Monday, October 29, 2007 |
CNN | Paul McGrath analysed the oil industry in Venezuela, pointing out the money spent on populist community projects and petro-diplomacy promoting socialism and anti-imperialism. |
| Monday, October 29, 2007 | Bloomberg | Paul Mc Grath commented on the elections in Argentina, looking ahead to the challenges facing the incoming government and likely climate for foreign investors. |
Monday, October 29, 2007 |
CNBC | Thoko Kaime provided an analysis of Chinese aid and loans to Africa and the implications for Western lenders. |
Tuesday, October 16, 2007 |
CNBC | Teymur Huseynov discussed Putin's visit to Iran and analysed the Russia-Iran relationship. |
Tuesday, October 16, 2007 |
CNBC | Joanna Gorska commented on the 21 October election in Poland and the potential impact on investment. |
Friday, October 12, 2007 |
CNBC | John Raines analysed the progress of the US election campaign. |
Wednesday, October 10, 2007 |
Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo discussed the CAFTA referendum in Costa Rica and the Bank of the South. |
Tuesday, October 9, 2007 |
CNN | Carlos Caicedo analysed the impact of Che Guevara's death and his lasting legacy throughout Latin America. |
| Friday, October 5, 2007 | CNBC, on Eni | Teymur Huseynov stated that Eni is unlikely to get its operating licence revoked as a result of renegotiation of the Kashagan PSA. Exclusive Analysis forecasts that Eni will either agree to pay a hefty fine for production delays and cost increase or transfer significant part of its shares to Kazakh state-controlled Kazmunaygas. |
| Monday, October 1, 8pm, 2007 | CNBC Africa, 45 minute panel interview on 'The Other Dimension' | Amarjit Singh analysed the situation in Myanmar. |
| Wednesday, September 26, 8pm, 2007 | CNBC Africa, 45 minute panel interview on 'We the People' | Carlos Caicedo discussed Venezuela under the leadership of Hugo Chavez and how he is perceived in neighbouring South American countries. |
| Friday, September 21, 2007 | CNN | Amarjit Singh discussed the Pakistani elections taking place on October 6. |
| Tuesday, September 11, 2007 | BBC Newsnight | Dr James Howarth analysed the implications of recently released al-Qaeda videos featuring Osama Bin Laden. Dr Howarth argued against the prevailing view that the video reflected the re-emergence of a reorganised al-Qaeda, rather it indicated that Bin Laden was isolated from the al-Qaeda movement. |
Wednesday, September 5, 2007 |
CNN | Katherine Baskerville discussed the threat of al-Qaeda in Europe. |
Tuesday, September 4, 2007 |
CNBC | James Howarth discussed the UK's pull-out from Basra, Iraq. |
Monday, September 3, 2007 |
CNBC | John Raines provided a commentary on the US electoral candidates. |
| Monday, September 3, 2007 | Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo analysed Venezuela's macroeconomic policies and the likelihood that President Chavez devalues the Bolivar. |
Wednesday, August 29, 2007 |
BBC | John Raines was interviewed about Panama. |
| Wednesday, August 22, 2007 | Reuters | Teymur Huseynov discussed "muscular Russia" - including the decision to restart patrols using long-range bombers, the US Missile Defence Shield in Czechoslovakia and an analysis of Putin. |
| Tuesday, August 21, 2007 | BBC | Kevin Liu commented on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline. |
| Thursday, August 16, 2007 | CNBC | Kevin Liu discussed the six-party talks on North Korea's Nuclear Program. |
| Wednesday, August 15, 2007 | CNBC Africa | Dr Nathalie Wlodarczyk contributed to a panel discussing the reasons behind kidnapping, the impact of kidnapping on businessess and organisations working in high-risk areas and alternative forms of conflict resolution. |
| Wednesday, August 15, 2007 | Bloomberg | Amarjit Singh commented on the 60th anniversary of Indian Independence, and discussed the reputation and future of India and Pakistan. |
| August 13, 2007 | Bloomberg | John Raines discussed the presidential campaign in the US. |
| Date | Article | |
| October 17, 2007 | Latin Business Chronicle - Ecuador Oil: More Trouble Ahead
Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa, inspired by policies in Venezuela, is aggressively attacking foreign oil companies in a gamble that likely will lead to further falls in oil output from Latin America's fifth-largest oil producing country... ... The new policies will also lead to more formal disputes, risk consultancy Exclusive Analysis warns. "President Correa's moves to increase state control over the oil industry will likely lead to more litigation with multinationals," Exclusive Analysis said in a commentary late last week.'more |
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| September 11, 2007 | Homeland Security Watch - Where Are We Six Years After 9/11?
"I've noted the work of a London-based group here before called Exclusive Analysis. They are kind enough to send me their proprietary products and I'm, as they say over there, keen on sharing it here on occassion. They recently assessed the terrorist threat in light of the foiled Germany plot.... ...according to this, we're lucky that the terrorists are unlucky - or at least unsophisticated." |
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| September 10, 2007 | Latin Business Chronicle - Guatemala: Few Radical Changes | |
| August 10, 2007 | Bloomberg - Sierra Leone Likely to Go to Second Round
"Sierra Leone's first presidential elections tomorrow since United Nations troops left the country following the end of an 11-year civil war, will probably go to a second round as anger mounts over unemployment in a country where only about one in three have work. Solomon Berewa, 69, the current vice president, will go through `'because the ruling party has a much more efficient party structure and wider popularity,'' said O.B. Sisay, deputy head of the Africa division at London-based Exclusive Analysis. Still, `'there is enough disappointment with the ruling party to help another candidate reach a second round run-off.' ... ...Presidential elections followed the end of the war in May 2002, in which there was very little political opposition to Kabbah's ruling party. 'This is the first election where there is a real battle for political space,' Sisay said. ``This is the first real test of democracy and of the country's independent institutions.' ... " |
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| August 3, 2007 | Reuters - Darfur scares European Investors off Sudan's Oil "Sudan has strong potential for oil exploration and expansion but big European players will be reluctant to invest for fear of pressure from groups advocating divestment because of violence in its Darfur region... .. .'The European players would be worried about reputational risks,' said O.B. Sisay, Deputy Head of Africa at Exclusive Analysis. The Sudan Divestment Taskforce has pressed U.S. universities and even large funds and financial institutions to divest from companies with interests in Sudan, in what activists say is the largest movement since the anti-apartheid campaign. Sisay said the Darfur war activists were influential. 'The pressure groups could create serious risks for the companies...which leaves a lot of space for Chinese companies.' ..." |
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