Construction - Exclusive Analysis

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Construction

Our clients within the construction sector use our forecasting expertise to anticipate the political and violent risks that could cause instability, interruption or loss to their projects. Exclusive Analysis supports new business opportunities in emerging markets, by helping our clients plan for the political and violent risks.

We provide precise location-specific forecasts which enable us to map violent risks to specific assets. We forecast protests and strikes, terrorism and war. Our clients can then manage their resources to mitigate their exposure or take advantage of the opportunities.
We also advise clients on political risks including license cancellation, expropriation of assets and counter-party risks. Our clients rely on our forecasts to inform their strategic planning in the construction of oil, gas and power facilities, infrastructure and mining projects.

Our forecasts enable clients to:
• Save costs associated to delays caused by strikes, legislation or conflict
• Vet local partners before entering into partnership arrangements
• Foresee damage to assets emanating from political violence
• Exploit opportunities arising from changes to the political climate

Sample Client-Specific Reports:
• Algeria – political factors behind delays to the Algiers metro system
• Indonesia – non-payment risks of a local cement company
• South Africa – assessment of the likelihood of cancellation of the 2010 World Cup
• Brazil – political risks to construction projects
• Russia – state intervention and credit risks of a construction business

Exclusive Analysis Client Case Study:
A client approached us seeking advice on whether to proceed with a road construction project in Ethiopia. We consulted with our local sources to ascertain whether attacks on construction facilities in the relevant areas were likely.

We found that the provinces in question were centres of opposition to the ruling party. In addition, we cited a history of attacks on transport infrastructure by insurgents in the region. On this basis, we advised our client against involvement in the project. A subsequent upswing in roadside bomb attacks in the region confirmed our forecast.

Colombia: Political risk: The collapse of a state tender for a national TV network license highlights the lack of transparency in Colombia’s media industry. :: Central African Republic: Security in the north has improved with the 2008 peace accord, but sporadic attacks and armed banditry are still a risk :: Gabon: Gabon's new president is likely to cement key alliances to ensure the opposition fails to challenge his position; pro-business reforms are likely :: Kenya: Despite political infighting and corruption scandals, efforts to ensure investor confidence are likely to reduce the risk of contract revision. :: US: The US will increasingly withdraw its troops from Iraq; however, troop increases in Afghanistan highlight new challenges for the future. :: Paraguay: Civil Unrest/Terrorism: Landless peasants and EPP guerrillas pose a growing threat to agribusinesses; kidnapping risks are also increasing. :: Romania: Political Risk: Energy sector consolidation is likely to increase risks of political interference and raise electricity prices. :: Bahrain: Political Risk: Gulf Finance House’s request to defer debt repayment is indicative of serious non-payment risks in Bahrain's wholesale banking sector. :: Pakistan: Terrorism: Increasing militant infiltration into Peshawar and the collusion of some security forces are increasing risks to NATO supplies in Pakistan. :: Venezuela: Political Risk/Civil Unrest: A power crisis is likely to get worse, posing risks of default on deliveries and civil unrest, particularly in Caracas. :: Israel/PA: War: The risk of war involving Hizbullah, Hamas and Israel, in which Hizbullah would likely attempt cross-border raids, is heightened in 2010. :: Myanmar: Political: Government reforms in the downstream fuel sector are likely to be superficial, with the state maintaining significant ability to intervene. :: Zimbabwe: Political Risk: Major foreign-owned banks and mining companies will face higher risk of expropriation under a new indigenisation law. :: India: Terrorism: Attacks are likely against the Commonwealth Games and IPL cricket tournament, but events are unlikely to be cancelled outright. :: Argentina: Political Risk: Argentina's strong objection to oil exploration in Falkland Islands waters poses contractual risks for oil firms and cargo vessels. :: Kazakhstan: Political Risk: Lack of agreement on Kazakh oil transit through Ukraine in 2010 creates non-delivery risks to Black Sea traders in February-March. :: Guinea: All Risks: Another coup is unlikely, but contract uncertainty will persist; in the northeast there is a risk of ethnic violence disrupting mining. :: Greece: Terrorism: Competition between left-wing militant groups is likely to result in attacks with larger devices and more daring locations. :: Iraq: Political Risk: Despite Kurdish moves to assure Baghdad of the transparency of its contracts, no resolution on payment for oil companies is likely. :: Somalia: Terrorism: The sinking of a pirate mother ship by NATO suggests a shift of focus to targeting pirates before they threaten merchant shipping. :: Venezuela: Political Risk: The Carabobo oil auction gives a template for future oil development contracts in the Orinoco Belt. :: Iran: Terrorism: The capture of Jundallah’s leader is likely a short term gain for Iran; a lasting reduction in attacks depends on Pakistani cooperation. :: Zimbabwe: Political Risk: Major foreign-owned banks and mining companies will face higher risk of expropriation under a new indigenisation law. :: Colombia: All Risks: The successor to Alvaro Uribe as president for 2010-14 is likely to maintain tough security and pro-business policies. :: Spain: Petrol and electricity substations are at risk of small-scale attacks by ETA supporters; larger assets are logistically more difficult to target :: Spain: The greatest risk of bombings is in the Basque country; Sunni extremists are likely to launch bomb attacks in public spaces in Madrid and Barcelona :: Spain: Violent protests resulting in asset damage are most likely in the Basque country; local strikes are likely against job cuts and plant closures