(Re)Insurance - Exclusive Analysis

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(Re)Insurance

(RE)INSURANCE

Re Insurance Our forecasting is used extensively by leading insurance companies who rely on it to inform their judgements about risk selection. Over 40 insurance clients worldwide including 8 of the top 10 syndicates in Lloyd’s use Exclusive Analysis to enhance their knowledge-led underwriting practices.

At the heart of the Exclusive Analysis philosophy is a conviction to add real and measurable value for clients. We do this by providing not only the best informed intelligence but also an accurate forecast of what this means over the relevant timeframe. We deliver forecasts upon which clients can act with confidence.

Our forecasts enable clients to:
• Improve risk selection
• Set knowledge-based pricing
• Save significant costs by avoiding claims
• Minimise liability
• Drive new revenue and profit potential by allowing a controlled market entry

Exclusive Analysis Client Case Studies:
Insurer: A client asked us help maximise the potential of their political risk book of business. Exclusive Analysis built a numerated index of risks for the client’s political risk book differentiated by country and business line. The index was superimposed against the rates of return in client’s book to indicate where the greatest underwriting opportunities were.
The index also indicated which countries/lines should be prioritised for Probable Maximum Loss analysis. Countries/lines where opportunities are smaller or negative were earmarked for further analysis.

Reinsurance: A client asked us to forecast the probable property damage resulting from terrorist attacks by country over a three year time frame. This information was needed to inform the client’s internal pricing models. For 10 lead countries EA prepared a report numbering the average number of incidents causing losses that fell within a specified loss band (between £1m and £5m; £5m and £10m; etc.) over the past three years. Based on this past data EA then modelled the likely losses in the coming three year period by loss band and country. Lastly, EA developed a peer group methodology that allowed all countries in the world to be matched to the lead countries so enabling wider application of the intelligence.

Colombia: Political risk: The collapse of a state tender for a national TV network license highlights the lack of transparency in Colombia’s media industry. :: Central African Republic: Security in the north has improved with the 2008 peace accord, but sporadic attacks and armed banditry are still a risk :: Gabon: Gabon's new president is likely to cement key alliances to ensure the opposition fails to challenge his position; pro-business reforms are likely :: Kenya: Despite political infighting and corruption scandals, efforts to ensure investor confidence are likely to reduce the risk of contract revision. :: US: The US will increasingly withdraw its troops from Iraq; however, troop increases in Afghanistan highlight new challenges for the future. :: Paraguay: Civil Unrest/Terrorism: Landless peasants and EPP guerrillas pose a growing threat to agribusinesses; kidnapping risks are also increasing. :: Romania: Political Risk: Energy sector consolidation is likely to increase risks of political interference and raise electricity prices. :: Bahrain: Political Risk: Gulf Finance House’s request to defer debt repayment is indicative of serious non-payment risks in Bahrain's wholesale banking sector. :: Pakistan: Terrorism: Increasing militant infiltration into Peshawar and the collusion of some security forces are increasing risks to NATO supplies in Pakistan. :: Venezuela: Political Risk/Civil Unrest: A power crisis is likely to get worse, posing risks of default on deliveries and civil unrest, particularly in Caracas. :: Israel/PA: War: The risk of war involving Hizbullah, Hamas and Israel, in which Hizbullah would likely attempt cross-border raids, is heightened in 2010. :: Myanmar: Political: Government reforms in the downstream fuel sector are likely to be superficial, with the state maintaining significant ability to intervene. :: Zimbabwe: Political Risk: Major foreign-owned banks and mining companies will face higher risk of expropriation under a new indigenisation law. :: India: Terrorism: Attacks are likely against the Commonwealth Games and IPL cricket tournament, but events are unlikely to be cancelled outright. :: Argentina: Political Risk: Argentina's strong objection to oil exploration in Falkland Islands waters poses contractual risks for oil firms and cargo vessels. :: Kazakhstan: Political Risk: Lack of agreement on Kazakh oil transit through Ukraine in 2010 creates non-delivery risks to Black Sea traders in February-March. :: Guinea: All Risks: Another coup is unlikely, but contract uncertainty will persist; in the northeast there is a risk of ethnic violence disrupting mining. :: Greece: Terrorism: Competition between left-wing militant groups is likely to result in attacks with larger devices and more daring locations. :: Iraq: Political Risk: Despite Kurdish moves to assure Baghdad of the transparency of its contracts, no resolution on payment for oil companies is likely. :: Somalia: Terrorism: The sinking of a pirate mother ship by NATO suggests a shift of focus to targeting pirates before they threaten merchant shipping. :: Venezuela: Political Risk: The Carabobo oil auction gives a template for future oil development contracts in the Orinoco Belt. :: Iran: Terrorism: The capture of Jundallah’s leader is likely a short term gain for Iran; a lasting reduction in attacks depends on Pakistani cooperation. :: Zimbabwe: Political Risk: Major foreign-owned banks and mining companies will face higher risk of expropriation under a new indigenisation law. :: Colombia: All Risks: The successor to Alvaro Uribe as president for 2010-14 is likely to maintain tough security and pro-business policies. :: Spain: Petrol and electricity substations are at risk of small-scale attacks by ETA supporters; larger assets are logistically more difficult to target :: Spain: The greatest risk of bombings is in the Basque country; Sunni extremists are likely to launch bomb attacks in public spaces in Madrid and Barcelona :: Spain: Violent protests resulting in asset damage are most likely in the Basque country; local strikes are likely against job cuts and plant closures