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Strategic Services and Risk Management
Strategic Trends Forecasting, Contingent Scenarios and Futures Analysis
As part of a highly interactive consulting relationship with clients, we apply our methodological tools and intelligence infrastructure to deliver highly tailored robust decision-support tools. Some of the benefits these tools offer clients are:
• The ability to fine tune resilience and contingency planning and build adaptive capacity
• Metrics to identify opportunities in new markets and products as well as protect existing income and operations
• Improved technical pricing and risk selection
• Optimise budgets and capacity allocation across multiple lines of business
• Profitable navigation of a changing regulatory and commercial environment through access to trusted and demand-driven intelligence
• Frameworks for evaluating policy and business development options
• Techniques to forecast strategic risks alongside market, resource and technical risks in a single cash-flow model.
Some examples of specific projects and tools clients can access in a strategic consulting relationship include:
STRATEGIC TRENDS FORECASTS AND FUTURES ANALYSIS - Tools to model how strategic trends are likely to evolve at both the local and global level in the long-term outlook (10+ years into the future) and how outlier, high-impact scenarios would affect clients. This allows clients to identify future intelligence requirements early and formulate strategic policies and plans. Using both quantitative and qualitative methods and data-driven scenario models, we identify how strategic trends are most likely to affect clients’ operations and environments on a probabilistic basis.
CRITICAL SCENARIO SELECTION AND STRESS-TESTING MODELS - These models benefit from our third generation methodology of systematic topic selection using both software tools and analytical judgement. Events modelled can include location-specific violent risk events (wars, terrorist attacks) or political risk (defaults, coups, nationalisations, economic events with global consequences). Our scenarios reflect a balance of risks (high-impact/low-probability, iterative scenarios, client-specific scenarios) and are intelligence-led to be realistic at micro level (for example, we identify how an economic downturn would be distributed across sectors).
Sample Scenarios Report - "AFGHANISTAN: POST-ISAF WITHDRAWAL SCENARIOS" (Published: February 2011)
PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS/VALUE AT RISK ANALYSIS - These models build on stress-testing models by integrating our intelligence and analysis expertise to assess scenario probability. This provides clients with calculations of loss ratios for a number of scenarios.
CUSTOMISED RISK AND OPPORTUNITY INDICES - Our proprietary indicecs offer exposure management tools differentiated by country or business line. Indices can be superimposed against exposures and rates of return to indicate the greatest risks and opportunities.
