TerrorRisk - Exclusive Analysis

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TerrorRisk

TerrorRisk

Risk Differentiation

TerrorRisk employs location-specific metrics to assess the relative terrorism risks at over 4,500 points of interest in 36 cities across 16 countries worldwide. TerrorRisk sits as a layer on any geospatial platform and is easily integrated into existing risk management solutions.

TerrorRisk provides a means to evaluate risks on a building-by-building basis across more than 50 distinct target types. TerrorRisk is a predictive decision-support tool that enables intelligence-led operational and strategic planning for risk managers and policymakers and knowledge-led exposure management for underwriters.

Updated target data is released quarterly to ensure relevance in decision-making and new city intelligence sets are added on a regular basis.

Location-Specific Terrorism Intelligence

The TerrorRisk algorithm draws on both quantitative modelling techniques and forward-looking intelligence and indicators, including analysis of terrorist group intentions and capabilities. The model incorporates historical data on attack and plot patterns as well as forecasts of risks to countries, cities, sectors and specific targets based on our risk indicators.

Our terrorism forecasts draw on our cross-regional Global Jihad Analysis project and our regional expertise. The Global Jihad Analysis Project includes a proprietary database of over 1,000 individuals involved in global jihad activities as well as multi-lingual analysis of communiqués, threats and statements. Our regional teams analyse data and risk indicators on other groups (from violent single-issue groups focused on animal rights, the environment and pro-life activism to politically motivated groups such as anarchists and the extreme right and extreme left).

Colombia: Political risk: The collapse of a state tender for a national TV network license highlights the lack of transparency in Colombia’s media industry. :: Central African Republic: Security in the north has improved with the 2008 peace accord, but sporadic attacks and armed banditry are still a risk :: Gabon: Gabon's new president is likely to cement key alliances to ensure the opposition fails to challenge his position; pro-business reforms are likely :: Kenya: Despite political infighting and corruption scandals, efforts to ensure investor confidence are likely to reduce the risk of contract revision. :: US: The US will increasingly withdraw its troops from Iraq; however, troop increases in Afghanistan highlight new challenges for the future. :: Paraguay: Civil Unrest/Terrorism: Landless peasants and EPP guerrillas pose a growing threat to agribusinesses; kidnapping risks are also increasing. :: Romania: Political Risk: Energy sector consolidation is likely to increase risks of political interference and raise electricity prices. :: Bahrain: Political Risk: Gulf Finance House’s request to defer debt repayment is indicative of serious non-payment risks in Bahrain's wholesale banking sector. :: Pakistan: Terrorism: Increasing militant infiltration into Peshawar and the collusion of some security forces are increasing risks to NATO supplies in Pakistan. :: Venezuela: Political Risk/Civil Unrest: A power crisis is likely to get worse, posing risks of default on deliveries and civil unrest, particularly in Caracas. :: Israel/PA: War: The risk of war involving Hizbullah, Hamas and Israel, in which Hizbullah would likely attempt cross-border raids, is heightened in 2010. :: Myanmar: Political: Government reforms in the downstream fuel sector are likely to be superficial, with the state maintaining significant ability to intervene. :: Zimbabwe: Political Risk: Major foreign-owned banks and mining companies will face higher risk of expropriation under a new indigenisation law. :: India: Terrorism: Attacks are likely against the Commonwealth Games and IPL cricket tournament, but events are unlikely to be cancelled outright. :: Argentina: Political Risk: Argentina's strong objection to oil exploration in Falkland Islands waters poses contractual risks for oil firms and cargo vessels. :: Kazakhstan: Political Risk: Lack of agreement on Kazakh oil transit through Ukraine in 2010 creates non-delivery risks to Black Sea traders in February-March. :: Guinea: All Risks: Another coup is unlikely, but contract uncertainty will persist; in the northeast there is a risk of ethnic violence disrupting mining. :: Greece: Terrorism: Competition between left-wing militant groups is likely to result in attacks with larger devices and more daring locations. :: Iraq: Political Risk: Despite Kurdish moves to assure Baghdad of the transparency of its contracts, no resolution on payment for oil companies is likely. :: Somalia: Terrorism: The sinking of a pirate mother ship by NATO suggests a shift of focus to targeting pirates before they threaten merchant shipping. :: Venezuela: Political Risk: The Carabobo oil auction gives a template for future oil development contracts in the Orinoco Belt. :: Iran: Terrorism: The capture of Jundallah’s leader is likely a short term gain for Iran; a lasting reduction in attacks depends on Pakistani cooperation. :: Zimbabwe: Political Risk: Major foreign-owned banks and mining companies will face higher risk of expropriation under a new indigenisation law. :: Colombia: All Risks: The successor to Alvaro Uribe as president for 2010-14 is likely to maintain tough security and pro-business policies. :: Spain: Petrol and electricity substations are at risk of small-scale attacks by ETA supporters; larger assets are logistically more difficult to target :: Spain: The greatest risk of bombings is in the Basque country; Sunni extremists are likely to launch bomb attacks in public spaces in Madrid and Barcelona :: Spain: Violent protests resulting in asset damage are most likely in the Basque country; local strikes are likely against job cuts and plant closures